Big Boy Productions: Reloaded

Monday, July 19, 2004

My Baseball Thoughts for the AL

We've reached a crossroads in the baseball season now. The mid-summer classic has come and gone, and now there's only one thing on the horizon -- the post-season.

There are so many teams that can be reasonably optimistic, but in the end, only eight teams will see post-season daylight. Let's break it down.

American League East
If you know me at all, you know I'm a huge Red Sox fan. As much as I hate to say it, I'm already becoming pretty focused on the Wild Card for my beloved Sox. The Yankee juggernaut looks to be too much for anyone to stop now -- plus ESPN says they have the easiest second-half schedule of any team in the Majors. Barring a meltdown of nuclear proportions in the Bronx, I would say the Yanks have it wrapped up.
Predicted Winner: New York Yankees

American League Central
Here we have a close race, with four teams all within 4.5 games of each other. The White Sox are clinging to a slight lead, with the Twins just a half-step back. Detroit (!) and Cleveland are both a mere 4.5 games back -- ground easily made up or lost. Detroit is vastly improved from a year ago, as-is Cleveland, but neither is ready to compete in the post-season. I'd look for Cleveland to have yet another fire sale -- they are still not ready to go balls-out and go for the World Series. As for Detroit, signing Pudge was a good start... with a few more smart moves, they could be competitive next year.

The White Sox enjoy the second easiest second-half schedule in the Majors (again, so says ESPN), and the Twins have few remaining home games, and play a very tough set of opponents. Despite the Twins being a very aggressive and heart-filled team, I think it's finally time for the pale hose to return to the play-offs.
Predicted Winner: Chicago White Sox

American League West
What a race we have going on in the AL West! First off, Texas of all teams has the 3rd best record in the Majors, and you have the always-strong A's and Angels right behind them. The A's and Angels are tough teams, and people have been trying to find a chink in Texas' armor all season... but at this point, I just don't see it happening. Texas is for real, and as opposed to finding faults, people should start noticing that they're winning... a LOT.
Predicted Winner: Texas Rangers

American League Wild Card
Boston, Oakland, Anaheim, and Minnesota are all Wild Card contenders this year. Boston enjoys the 4th easiest schedule in the second half, but Oakland's right behind them in the 7 spot. I'll say right now, I don't think Minnesota will win the card. Oakland has their last seven games at home, and that is tremendous. Boston's last six are on the road. I think Anaheim will fizzle at the end of the year, much as they have underpeformed all season. Colon has been a huge bust, and despite the stellar play of stars such as Chone Figgins, the Halos just don't seem to be a playoff team this year.

So, that basically brings it to a 2 horse race... Oakland or Boston. I am going to have to give Boston the nod in this one, because I think Theo Epstein will make some kind of deal to get the team fired up and ready for the playoffs... maybe Houston will be interested in dealing Beltran. Either way, Boston should be playing better baseball, and I think they'll take the card. Oakland is playing very good ball, considering the team they field, and I'd look for them to continue on the same pace... Boston, on the other hand, has proven they are a better team than this, and that team will hopefully appear sooner or later.
Predicted Winner: Boston Red Sox

American League Divisional Series
Boston Red Sox vs. Texas Rangers
Once again, the card carrying Sox will be matched up against an AL West team. Texas has been tremendous at home, but simply good on the road. Unfortunately for the Sox, Texas will enjoy home-field advantage in this one -- 3 games at The Ballpark. This didn't stop Boston from knocking off Oakland last year, but Texas is a much better home team than Oakland is. If Boston is in the playoffs at all, they will be playing better baseball than they are currently, and I like the Sox in this one.
Predicted Winner: Boston Red Sox

American League Divisional Series
New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox
This will be a classic series. Chicago has been a very strong team this year, and New York has really seemed on Cruise Control at times. I think the 'hose could prove to be a very large disruption in the Yankee plans. Do I think Chicago will win? Not really. Do I think it'll be a hell of an ALDS? A whole-hearted yes.
Predicted Winner: New York Yankees

American League Championship Series
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
After meeting 19 times in the regular season, fans will have another 7 games to look forward to. Boston leads the season series 6-4 at this point, with 6 more games at Fenway and 3 in the Bronx. If Boston makes a deal like I believe Theo Epstein will make before the trade deadline, the new-look Sox could really make trouble on the Yankees. The Yanks can take games from Wakefield and Lowe, as long as Schilling and Pedro take the hill twice, that's all the Sox will need for victory.
Predicted Winner: Boston Red Sox

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